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Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Auto Sector Update

Momentum Continues…

Auto Sales maintained a robust momentum in March 2010 as well and touched record highs. This was on the back of positive consumer sentiment and advanced buying at the dealer's desk (in anticipation of a price hike, due to the change in emission norms from April 1, 2010). Sales volume of most players showed no signs of tapering off, and recorded healthy growth for the month. The Commercial Vehicle (CV) segment dominated the overall growth in March 2010, led by the Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicle (M&HCV) segment, as the domestic recovery was affirmed by the overall pick up in economic and industrial activities. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment also continued on the growth path, following new launches and thanks to a confident consumer in the market. The Two-Wheeler segment also maintained its growth momentum. Going ahead, we expect the demand to be strong, albeit normalized across segments, after considering that growth may have peaked in the past few months, due to the expected price increase after a spurt in raw material prices.

Maruti Suzuki (Maruti) recorded a good 11% yoy growth at 95,123 vehicles (85,669). The March 2010 numbers include domestic sales of 79,530 units and the highest-ever monthly exports of 15,593 units. The management is positive about its new launch, Eeco, which gave a boost to its C segment volumes and grew by 80.6% yoy. Overall, cars grew by 8.8% yoy, while MUVs fell by 51.4% yoy.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) reported overall volumes at 48,012 vehicles (36,675), led by a 54.4% yoy growth in the Tractor segment, and supplemented by a 21.5% yoy growth in the Automotive division. The Automotive segment growth was led by growth in the LCV and three-wheeler segments at 23.1% and 90.3% yoy, respectively. However, on the high base of last year, UV volume growth was muted at 4.7% yoy in the month of March. The company performed exceptionally on the exports side, growing at around 280.5% yoy, on an overall basis.

Tata Motors (TML) reported a robust 39% yoy growth in total volumes, with the M&HCV segment leading the growth at 68.4% yoy, followed by the LCV segment growing at 53.7% yoy. Exports also boosted the company's performance and grew by 128.2% yoy, partially on account of a lower base from the downturn in FY2009. Passenger cars also displayed a healthy growth of 19.8% yoy.

Ashok Leyland (ALL) reported a robust 96.9% yoy growth in total volumes, led by sales in the Trucks segment, which grew at 509.6% yoy, primarily due to a low base effect, coupled with a recovery in domestic industrial production.

Hero Honda (HH) reported a strong growth in the two-wheeler pack, with a 17.3% yoy growth to 4.6mn units, surpassing the management's expectations of ending FY2010 with an estimated sale of 4.5mn units. Bajaj Auto (BAL) led the pack, with a striking 78% growth on the back of its key brands, Pulsar and Discover, performing well in the month. TVS Motor (TVS) clocked a 20.3% yoy growth, due to good growth registered by its Scooter and Moped Segments. The recently launched TVS Jive (launched in Tamil Nadu) and the TVS Wego supported the high volumes in the Motorbike and Scooter segments.

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